Sick and annoyed

I’ve been sick all week with symptoms that are consistent with coronavirus, including a partial loss of the sense of smell. If it is the flu instead, then it is a much milder and more lingering flu than the ones I have had in the past.

So I’ve been mostly resting, and I am starting to think seriously about buying a new bed, because I am tired of being in this one.

Yesterday the governor announced “shelter in place” rules, to begin on Friday and go on for two weeks. Occupations and activities deemed “essential” are excluded. The stated purpose is to buy time to prepare for a surge in coronavirus infections; he doesn’t believe it will flatten the curve.

Many people, including my husband, were already working from home, or laid off, and many were already avoiding non-essential social contact—without the threat of being charged with a misdemeanor.

Minnesota will probably reach 300 confirmed cases today. They are only testing those with “severe symptoms”, along with some medical workers, people in long-term care facilities, and people with connections. A few dozen have been hospitalized so far.

There is almost, but not quite, enough information there to start making some decent estimates. What is missing is the number and positive rate of people coming in off the street with severe symptoms, and the criteria being used to decide whether or not to test medical workers, and how many people are currently hospitalized for other respiratory infections, and how many of them were tested.

With my own personal data point, I can say with confidence that something that greatly resembles coronavirus is now in general circulation. I go out in public much less frequently than the average; as I have noted in the past, this seems to give my immune system an excuse for idling down. So when I do go out, I am quite likely to catch something, and that something will be the thing that is “going around” at the moment.

If it is the coronavirus, then Governor Wahl’s effort to delay the curve will not be very effective, because it is already here and widespread. If it isn’t, then it is something else equally nasty, and coronavirus cases will be in addition to those.

There were claims that 75,000 Minnesotans could die if these measures weren’t taken. That assumes a death rate above 1%, applied to the entire population of the state, which in my opinion is excessively pessimistic.

Logistically, the shelter-in-place order will create another round of pantry-stocking, and further deplete store inventories. We can go for two weeks without shopping, but at some point we’re going to have to catch up.